Yedidya Julian Sinclair works in the Israeli clean tech world. name for ourselves", "Who say in pride and arrogance of heart: The bricks have fallen down, but we will rebuild with The Shmita understanding about current and future events. After dropping 33% in 2022, the Nasdaq Composite Index got off to a strong start in 2023, rising 17% between the start of the year and Feb. 2. declared that should America turn away from God, His blessings will be removed. The Largest Percent Changes in the Dow Jones industrial Average, RankDateCloseNet Change% ChangeShemitah Years or Wake11987-10-191738.74508.0022.6121929-10-28260.6438.3312.82 31899-12-1858.277.9411.99 41929-10-29230.0730.5711.73 51929-11-06232.1325.559.92 61932-08-1263.115.798.40 71907-03-1476.236.898.29 81987-10-261793.93156.838.0492008-10-158577.91733.087.87101933-07-2188.717.557.84 111937-10-18125.7310.577.75122008-12-018149.09679.957.70132008-10-098579.19678.917.33141917-02-0188.526.917.24151997-10-277161.15554.267.18 161932-10-0566.075.097.15 172001-09-178920.7684.817.13181931-09-24107.798.207.07191933-07-2096.267.327.07 202008-09-2910365.45777.686.98. Eight months later, the S&P 500 loss through August has exceeded 10% for only the twelfth time since 1926. Therefore, the principle of the Shemitah remained in effect even if Israel tried to eliminate it from their lives and culture. In addition, all of Israel would have built-in rest periods designed into their economic system consisting of days and years, which would greatly reduce the stress of life. From Shuls to JCCs, Federations to urban farms, I met a wide range of knowledge levels and often had to begin by explaining the abc of shmita, the biblical seven-year agriculture cycle. Though they tried to run from it, the Shemitah Effect eventually caught up to them and caused 70 years of banishment from their land! Founder slams mozilla foundation cryptocurrency. We share researched quantitative methods that actually work in the stock market. Both dates were the eve of Rosh Hashanah on the final day of a shmita year. Theres been a major financial disruption in seven of the eight Shmita years dating back to 1966: Our institutional research publication Perception for the Professional is sought after by the top institutional managers in the industry. The prideful building of the Tower of Babel brought judgment. Maybe nothing goes down on that day. Callers from the UK can dial +44 20 3795-9972. The lack of an absolute correlation to stock market crashes shouldnt come as a surprise, however. , where I wrote about a financial crisis, much worse than the one in 2008. Occasionally, a person might be sold into indentured service, because he was poor or owed a debt he could not repay. Weve gotten our money back, thanks to the complaints help we got!Eternally grateful!!! Yes, its a construction and as for all constructions affecting us, it might be a smart ting having a look at it in order to understand it. (You can check the numbers and dates here, here and here.) Thus, while the last few Shemitahs have almost exactly correlated to market crashesand as Jonathan Cahn has said they may be indicative of a broader approaching judgment upon Americawe will not be able to use the Shemitah Effect to predict what will happen during the next Shemitah year in 2021-2022. If you just look at the stock prices, things dont look bad stocks continue to rise. Compared to non-Shmita years, that is significantly different (p < 0.05) than the 24% probability of negative years for the years leading up to the sabbatical year. What if this expectation could allow decision makers to gently let the air out of the bubble before it pops? Been looking for this thread. In reality, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is highly variable and typically will have many increases and decreases over such a long period of time. This year is a different story. If Israel followed God in these things, then the Shemitah would bring a great benefit and blessing; essentially providing for each farming family a full year off every seven years from cultivating, planting, and harvesting. Thus, the agricultural effect occurs during the entire year and immediately thereafter, whereas the effect from the debt release occurs only at the end of the year and its wake. As Israel implodes, does nobody in Netanyahus Likud have the guts to defy him? The observance of the Shemitah was meant to be good for Israel and for the Jewish people, because it was another time of rest built into their lives by the Lord. Required fields are marked *. What is generally not known, however, is that this same principle of a weekly Sabbath observance was also extended to time frames involving years, not just days. If you make a sale, moreover, to your friend or buy from your friends hand, you shall not wrong one another. In addition, if the poor sold their property because they needed the money, their family would eventually be assured of gaining it back at the Jubilee. came crashing down to earth. 3 1986-1987 Shmita Year - 33% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Phi network most valuable crypto in the world, Ukraine zelenskyy virtual into law legalizing. tower; "Come, let us build ourselves a city, and a tower whose top is in the heavens; let us make a People are blessed with perfect economic information and make their decisions accordingly. We are asking for your ideas too. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. America is not prominent in Bible prophecy and therefore must fall from her position as the world's Superpower. If we continue the upwards trend entering 2021, approaching September we should pay attention. It is a Shabbat of years instead of a Shabbat of days. There can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investment strategies devised or undertaken by Reppond Investments, Inc.) will be profitable for a clients or prospective clients portfolio. You shall have the fiftieth year as a jubilee; you shall not sow, nor reap its aftergrowth, nor gather in from its untrimmed vines. The Shemitah years of 1972-1973, 1979-1980, 1986-1987, 2000-2001, and 2007-2008 all correspond to concurrent or subsequent increases in the unemployment rate. Ben Reppond(406) 871-3321ben@reppondinvestments.comLearn how we manage money: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4IdPxtjBYo\u0026t=3220sInstagram: @benreppondBloomberg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hA3IkauON4CNBC Joe Kernanhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlmLyfx5tcECNBC Scott Wapnerhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb1cGFjXXtYJonathan CahnThe Mystery of the Shemitahhttps://www.amazon.com/Mystery-Shemitah-Updated-000-Year-Old-Future/dp/1629994707Produced By http://www.thepyrostudios.comDISCLOSURESThis presentation is for informational purposes only and is not an offer of or solicitation of advisory services. modern history. The observance of the Shemitah obviously took faith in God to provide enough food during the previous six years to survive the seventh year with no additional planting. Introducing shmita, the Torah suggests that there is a seven year cycle of economic activity: Six years shall you sow your land and gather in your yield; but in the seventh year you shall let it rest and lie fallow. (Exodus 23) Then immediately it repeats the idea of Shabbat: Six days you shall do you work, but on the seventh day you shall cease from labor. On April 30, 1789 George Washington prophetically Shmita, Cahan writes is, about taking a break from the madcap pursuit of wealth and acknowledging that it's all from God. The year 2022 on the Jewish calendar is a Shmita yearhistorically considered to be a year of rest, or sabbatical, following six years of work. The seventh year in the cycle is known as the sabbatical year, or "Shmita." Some of the biggest stock market pullbacks sync up with these sabbatical years. Perhaps 2022, the next Shmita year, will have some upheavals. 2000-2001 Shmita Year - 37% U.S. stock market value wiped out. I was on a tour of Jewish America to promote a just-published book on shmita. This was before the war in Ukraine and the exponential price growth of several crucial commodities, which are all said to be consequences of the war. This is what the Lord said through Moses in Deuteronomy: At the end of every seven years you shall grant a remission of debts. In the year 2014-2015 the stock market is moving sideways and slows down within the established uptrend. What if we could engender the expectation that the seventh year will be a year of readjustment in national or global economics? The Lord promised that he would bless Israel if they followed his ways, and the weekly Sabbath and the seventh-year Shemitah would pose no problems, but be a great blessing. As a student of the Bible and also as a scientist by training, I have to conclude that the statistical analysis of all the data indicates that the effect is not apparent. The US has inherited the Biblical blessings and curses. The Bible is absolutely a book of great importance, at least for lots of religious people. Fortunately, this is a simple process, as Israel has been faithfully tracking the Shemitah time cycles (although not strictly observing the Mosaic Law) from the time that the Temple was destroyed in 70 AD. Let's take a look at the incredibly accurate timing of the Shmita Year as it impacts modern history in the realm of finances, economies, and empires: 1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. In a personal communication with Adrian Zenz, he told me, from the empirical economic evidence it is impossible to demonstrate or prove a Shemitah effect, as shown also by the low explanatory power scores in my statistical testing, based on different Shemitah time periods. Today's world is very unstablewatch Bible prophecy unfold before our very eyes! Note: The people of Israel actually follow two yearly calendars. Establishment of Click the link in that email to complete registration so you can comment. God often operates within the realm of probabilities in such a way that He makes it difficult or impossible for us to absolutely predict the future. What about the Shemitah? With the most speculative year in U.S. stock market history drawing to a close, we could probably all use a rest. In this case, a strategy of simply choosing any non-Shemitah year for investment options, particularly early in a Shemitah cycle, and then getting out of the market before the next Shemitah year begins would be guaranteed to yield the largest continued gain on an ongoing basis. Let me show you. A Shabbat of years A Shmita Year happens every seventh year. As business picks up, people invest, share prices rise, people get excited and invest more, still more investors pile into the market, as everyone seems to me making loads of money so effortlessly; theres exhuberance and euphoria until a few smart alicks figure that assets are inflated way beyond their real values; euphoria gives way to doubt to anxiety to full blown panic; people runs for the hills, the cycle screeches into reverse, fortunes are lost and the whole thing starts all over again. Ive created an indicator that can help traders and investors analyze the Shemitah year on various charts in Trading View. Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. Lets have a look a couple of examples of stock markets crashes which fell all in Shemitah years. Not to plant on the 7th year This is the effect that many authors have written about in recent years, because the last two Shemitah cycles appear to have had a dramatic effect on the worlds economy. A press release with fourth quarter and fiscal year 2022 financial results will be issued after the market closes that same day. Numerologists will be disappointed to learn that longer-term time cycles dont line up for a prosperous 2022 for stocks. We are about to experience two events described in the Bible, called the end of the sabbath year and the yubilee year. A mini-recession built into their economic system every seven years which assured that there would be no financial bubbles or the subsequent severe crashes, which often resulted from them. To detect a Shemitah Effect and see if it is broader than just its relationship to Israel, we need to first map out the times that correspond to the Shemitah years within the Jewish and Gregorian calendars. But what does this have. An investor cannot invest directly in these. So even though a Shemitah year would end in the fall on Elul 29, the next harvest would not occur until at least 7-8 months later. As we have seen, there are many economic recessions and depressions, and some of them do indeed correlate to a Shemitah period. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost bankrupt. and yearsthe cycle of seven weeks (7x7) points to the 50th day - Pentecost. Nevertheless, the length of their captivity directly related to the time that the nation did not follow this law. The beginning of the Jubilee year would be marked by the sounding of a rams horn on the Day of Atonement (Yom Kippur). He described within it, as part of a series of harbingers to judgment affecting the United States and the world, a concept related to an old Jewish law often called the Shemitah (The Harbinger, p. 153). Here is the crazy thing, the actual returns are different for the Shmita years. In addition, Zenz also considered a more restricted analysis by using only the 2-month Elul-Tishri Shemitah ending months and the Shemitah wake period in his calculations, just like Cahn focused on in his book. In fact, since 1950, the. hearts with the times and feast dates that have been set down by God. 1937-1938 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. This time, everyone says, it will different. The message of shmita that a similar cycle applies over seven years has, so far, not. Written by John Ballard for The Motley Fool ->. The new tower raised up from Ground Zero has There is also a reckoning. The beginning of American to rise to world power. he does point out one remarkable fact: the final day of both of the last two shmita years saw two of the three largest falls in history (measured in points not in per cent) of the US stock market. In other words, did God design not only Israels economy, but also the world economy to ideally function in much the same way that he instructed Israel through the Law? 9/11 and Global recession. Although Cahn concluded that there was a positive correlation between the Shemitah and economic downturns, this positive conclusion occurred, because Cahns analysis did not include all possible data points; neither did it use standard scientific methods of statistical analysis. Lets see. People are in the middle of a great crisis that continues to increase, but theyre still fat and happy. The bond market bubble has popped, and forward-looking Treasury returns are no longer a disaster. Six years you shall sow your field, and six years you shall prune your vineyard and gather in its crop. A more in depth analysis would conclude that breathing has nothing to do with eventual death, even if everyone who breaths does eventually die. However, the historical hit rates arent high enough to justify running for cover if you have no other fundamental stock-market worries. Thus, every year some seeds would drop to the ground during harvest and result in new plants growing the next year. When ancient Israel uttered these prideful words God brought judgment upon the In addition, the Year of Jubilee would bring a release of property throughout all of Israel. To Towers symbolize a nation's power and pridethis connection can be seen from the very first It is the concept that one should allow the land to go fallow, and let it rest. For instance, there were significant declines in 2003 and 2011 that were both in the middle of the subsequent Shemitah cycles and did not correspond to the Shemitah years or their wakes. The Shmita year starts every 7th year on Elul 29 on the Biblical Calendar on the Feast of Trumpets. U.S. lost its first war - Vietnam So what makes this Shemitah cycle so interesting? Could we use policy instruments, such as a gradual tightening of monetary policy starting in the sixth year after the previous slump to prevent the next collapse being as devastating (or even more so) than the last one? This means, unfortunately that slumps and depressions are exaggerated in degree. Greed and the desire for money caused many in Israel to ignore the Shemitah and the Jubilee. You shall then sound a rams horn abroad on the tenth day of the seventh month; on the day of atonement you shall sound a horn all through your land. Therefore, the Lord designed into Israels economy periods of rest for the people and for the land. Therefore, the poor would never be poor forever and the rich would not continually devour the property of the poor. Same same and no big change. The goal of the Shmita Project is to significantly raise awareness of the concept of shmita in Jewish tradition, both as a way to learn about how extraordinary and rich Jewish tradition is, and to animate conversation and change in the world, based on the values and teachings of shmita and focus on environmental sustainability, rest and overwork, Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped some 200 basis points in the first nine months of the year, hammering investors and financial firms, not to mention thrusting Mexico into crisis and bankrupting Orange County. The length of these cycles is reliably between six and nine years. Exodus 23:11. In Deuteronomy 15:4, the Lord even promised that there would be no poor among them if they followed these basic Shemitah principles. Unfortunately, markets have frequently taken this suggestion quite literally! In particular, we should seriously consider whether such a force really exists and if it is affecting the unfolding of world events in the last days. In 2012, the Christian Rabbi Jonathan Cahn published a book entitled The Harbinger: The Ancient Mystery That Holds the Secret of Americas Future (Frontline Pub Inc). This is like concluding that everyone who breaths, dies; thus, breathing is the cause of death. Personal debts are forgiven, and commitments to faith are renewed. Personally, this series was an eye-opener. This was before the war in Ukraine and the exponential price growth of several crucial commodities, which are all said to be consequences of the war. In addition, the law of the Shemitah allowed for all people and animals to eat freely of the opportunistic crops which grew during the Sabbath year. You shall not do any work; it is a sabbath to the Lord in all your dwellings.. The seventh year is meant to be a reset, a return to the real values that underpin our increasingly frantic efforts. Economy is like an unfathomable thing. In this way, all property bought and sold between Hebrews was really only rented for a time and not permanently transferred or lost. These downturns are likely due to the fact that the worlds economies are not run according to the way God intended them to be run, and therefore over time they become increasingly chaotic and unpredictable. Note: Unlike Cahn and others who have considered the Shemitah Effect to mainly occur near the end of the Shemitah year or within 1 month of its end (i.e., the Elul-Tishri 2-month time period), this analysis considers the entire Shemitah year to be a time of potential economic downturn. The previous salary increase was higher than the last one, so were kind of happy. With the most speculative year in U.S. stock market history drawing to a close, we could probably all use a rest. Is there an unseen force or a law of nature that God has designed into the world, which silently governs the rise and fall of economies and nations? is like a two edged sword. Major crashes in the stock market are correlated with the Shemitah years. Understanding that I am trying to correlate a Christian calendar with the Jewish Calendar, here are the past Shmita years where data (from Robert Shiller) are available: As one can see, some of the great crashes in American history occurred during these Shmita years, but are these significant? Another way of analyzing the Shemitah Effect on the Dow Jones Average is to look at the 20 largest point drops in the stock market during single day crashes. Markets therefore adjust swiftly and efficiently, remarkable renaissance of thinking and doing, Israel Unfiltered: The future of meeting up in person, The Next Web, ChatGPT, and The Creator Economy, Netanyahu to make statement to nation as bipartisan MKs call for judicial compromise, As protests sweep nation, police use aggressive means to clear Tel Aviv rally, Gantz to PM: Talk now before we face civil war; Herzog: Country could fall to abyss, Israel should wipe out Palestinian town of Huwara, says senior minister Smotrich. Keynes, who was also a savvy investor, wrote in his General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (Chapter 12): Enterprise only pretends to itself to be mainly actuated by the statements in its own prospectus, however candid and sincere. If the reset is not expected, (and it usually isnt), experience shows that it comes upon us anyway, as a nasty surprise. This rest also applies to the cycles of weeks In Leviticus we are given more information about this principle: The Lord then spoke to Moses at Mount Sinai, saying. The greater the number of years left before the next Jubilee, the greater would be the value of the land and therefore the price. It can be a fearful thing to turn away from self-reliance in getting what you need and become completely reliant on God, especially if you have no faith. Going back another seven years brings us to 1987. In case of abuse, In this Sunday, Oct. 19, 2014 photo, Gilad Fine, a religious Jewish farmer from Bnei Netzarim, stands inside his greenhouse, between the southern tip of the Gaza Strip and the Egyptian border. Your email address will not be published. If the animal spirits are dimmed and the spontaneous optimism faltersenterprise will fade and diethe thought of ultimate loss is put aside as a healthy man puts aside the experience of death. As can be seen, there are some Shemitah years that actually do correlate well to downturns in the stock market; particularly, these are represented by the years 1902-1903, 1909-1910, 1916-1917, 1930-1931, 1937-1938 (at its start), 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1986-1987, 2000-2001, 2007-2008, and 2014-2015. If we continue the upwards trend entering 2021, approaching September we should pay attention. Please invest accordingly. 1930-1931: The Great Depression, the worst financial crisis in human history. Unfortunately, markets have frequently taken this suggestion quite literally! Despite these promised benefits that the Shemitah and Jubilee observances would bring to Israel, it was unfortunately rarely if ever followed during the years of the First Kingdom and the First Temple period. The sabbatical year is one of rest, forgiveness, and reflection. Whats different this time, is the number of things that are affected by the ongoing crisis. Time Cycles Got It Right; What Do They Say Now? Is it possible that the Bible provides the reason for this phenomenon as well as details on its origin and properties? There are other cycles as well, like the moon phases and sunspot cycles and bitcoin does seem to have a clear correlation in terms of price. 1930-1931 Shmita Year - 86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in Please invest accordingly. https://www.instagram.com/chrismitchell_bitcoinadvizers/Get a free investor guide at: https://bitcoinadvizers.com/ How to set up a Trading View for free: https://youtu.be/oEzxwWiQdCYTrading View Affiliate Discount Link: https://www.tradingview.com/gopro/?shAndroid link: https://play.google.com/store/apps/deIOS link: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/bitcoin ***NOT FINANCIAL, LEGAL, OR TAX ADVICE! Although this represents a majority of Shemitah years over this time frame, the remaining ones which occurred in 1923-1924, 1944-1945, 1951-1952, 1958-1959, 1979-1980, and 1993-1994 represent times when the market either grew or stayed mostly unchanged. Its going to be a very bumpy year until Sept 24-27 already look at the signs very volitale market, supply chain on last thread, oil prices through the roof ( US cannot sustained price of oil over $100 ) they are predicting $150-175 barell, famine in Africa, major drought in 3/4 of US . As originally appeared in The Jerusalem Post on September 16, 2021.The most difficult thing is the decision to act, the rest is merely tenacity. Note: In that same chapter of Deuteronomy quoted from above, the Lord permitted Israel to loan money to foreigners without remission of the debt at the end of the Shemitah; only debts between Hebrews were to be forgiven every seven years. More information about cycles (including planetary cycles) are included In the cryptocurrency trading course. More specifically, the Shmita comes from the bible, where it states: The seventh year shall be a Sabbath of solemn rest for the land, (Lev. Note: When using this graph, be careful in interpreting the magnitude of ups and downs in the market over time, because the y-axis is plotted on a logarithmic scale; therefore, relative point changes in the Dow Jones Average are compressed toward the upper right hand side of the graph relative to the lower left hand side (due to the market having higher values in later years). For instance, the Ten Commandments clearly have important application to all people throughout all time, not just to the Jews and the nation of Israel. Add to the fact that this pandemic is not going out quietly, we will eventually find out that stock markets do not like uncertainty. Shmita years are behind the rise and fall of America. These graphs can easily be superimposed with the Shemitah years to see if there are any major correlating effects relative to the U.S. economy (the U.S. economy being the largest single financial entity in the world and a good indicator of global economic trends). 1916-1917 Year of Shemitah (*Super Shemitah Year) - Stock market drops 40%. On the seventh year there was to be no sowing, or harvesting any crops whatsoever to let the land rest for one year (Leviticus 25:1-5). The Shmita is based on the civil calendar which always begins on the Feast of Trumpets (September/October). THE STOCK MARKET WILL CRASH! This part of the Shemitah thus provided a cooling off period for Israels economy. In fact, the Lord promised that the crop of the sixth year would be so bountiful that it would supply them with food for 3 full years: But if you say, What are we going to eat on the seventh year if we do not sow or gather in our crops?. They year also strands for debt forgiveness to break debt cycles. God's calendar (opposite) intersects with two of our Gregorian years. whoah this blog is wonderful i love reading your articles. It turns out that its lacking entire categories pertinent to stock market action: Weve reminded dejected readers throughout 2022 that this year was statistically cursed from the onset. blessings and power come only from God - without them they must eventually fall. Again, the Shemitah Effect appears to be real, but it cannot be used as an absolute predictor of future unemployment levels. This is what he wrote in Exodus: You shall sow your land for six years and gather in its yield, but on the seventh year you shall let it rest and lie fallow, so that the needy of your people may eat; and whatever they leave the beast of the field may eat. When the United States is consumed by greed and ignores these biblical. On this year of jubilee each of you shall return to his own property. Seven Shemitahs is simply equal to 77 years or a total of 49 years. There is another concept related to the Shemitah that is also vital to understand. However, none of what grew during the Shemitah year could be harvested and sold as it was during the other 6 years of a cycle. How about a rest that lasts 12 months? Were now less than a month away from the end of the current shemita as well as the current yubilee-year. The differences between Reppond Investments Inc.s results and those of the indices may be different due to differences in diversification and by the properties of the actual securities held by Reppond Investments, Inc. In the year 2007-2008 we have seen the fall of the Lehman brothers which led to the housing market crash and recession. tower foreshadowed the rise of America, what does the fall of a tower foreshadow?
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